Blitzara ranks every fantasy-relevant player by value over replacement (VOR) — not raw projected points, but how many points a player gives you above a freely-available replacement at his position. That's what actually wins drafts: the edge a pick gives you over the player you'd take instead.

The projection

Each player's points-per-game is a recency-weighted blend of the last three seasons (2025 counts most, then 2024, then 2023), adjusted for touchdown regression (unsustainable scoring gets pulled toward the mean), an age curve, and opportunity — expected points from usage like targets, carries and red-zone work — so we reward role, not just past results.

Rushing-aware quarterbacks

We backtested it: a QB's rushing predicts his next-season fantasy scoring nearly as well as his prior points, and far better than passing volume. So mobile QBs get a modest rushing premium on top of their projection — credit for a matchup-proof floor a plain projection misses. Every QB card shows the exact bump and an "ideal QB fit" that explains its own math.

Transparent by design

We don't claim a secret formula. The Blitzara Model runs on public data using established, well-understood methods — and we show our work: every card explains its own numbers. Our edge is the execution — the specific weights, the presentation, and the injury, weather, depth-chart and schedule context wired into one place.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees — use them as a sharp starting point, then trust your read.